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When Do the Colors Change in New York

Climate talks hosted by the United Nations in Scotland went into overtime. Here are some key facts.

Credit... Nadia Hafid

Lisa Friedman

Lisa Friedman has spent more than a decade covering global climate negotiations. Glasgow is her 10th COP.

The United Nations global warming conference in Glasgow, which officially ended Friday but continued into Saturday, is considered a crucial moment for efforts to address the threat of climate change.

More than 130 heads of state and government and thousands of diplomats met over two weeks to set new targets for cutting emissions from burning coal, oil and gas that are heating the planet. The conference is held annually but this year is critical because scientists say nations must make an immediate, sharp pivot away from fossil fuels if they hope to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.

But the challenges are enormous. China, Australia and Russia have either failed to set new targets for cutting carbon emissions this decade or announced ones that scientists consider weak. India pledged to significantly increase renewable energy, but coal, which provides the bulk of India's electricity, would remain a large part of its energy mix in the coming decade. Brazil announced it would cut emissions by 50 percent by 2030, but many observers remain skeptical that Brazil's president, Jair Bolsonaro, will keep that pledge.

Meanwhile, only a few wealthy countries have allocated money to help poor and vulnerable nations cope with the impacts of climate disasters that they have done little to cause.

Those two factors make the likelihood of success at the conference, known as COP26, uncertain.

The conference ran for two weeks and officially ended Nov. 12.

The meetings are being held at the Scottish Event Campus, Glasgow's largest exhibition center. In addition to more than 21,000 attendees at formal talks and side events, large marches are expected around the city. Saturday, Nov. 6 was designated the Global Day for Climate Justice. More than 100,000 people marched in Glasgow, according to rally organizers, as world leaders debated how to deliver on the unmet promises of years past.

COP stands for Conference of the Parties. In diplomatic parlance, the parties refer to 197 nations that agreed to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at a meeting in 1992. That year, the United States and some other countries ratified the treaty to combat "dangerous human interference with the climate system" and stabilize levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.

This is the 26th time countries have gathered under the convention — hence, COP26.

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Credit... Kieran Dodds for The New York Times

President Biden arrived the first Monday of the conference. He is among about 130 heads of state and government who attended, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain and Nicola Ferguson Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland. Presidents Xi Jinping of China, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil and Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did attend .

Thousands of diplomats from nearly 200 countries conducted the nuts and bolts of the negotiations throughout the two weeks, while business leaders, academic experts and activists, including Ms. Thunberg, monitored the proceedings and in many cases pushed for more ambitious targets.

The British and United Nations hosts have said they want to "keep hope alive" of constraining global temperature rise to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, compared with levels before the Industrial Revolution. That's the threshold beyond which scientists say the dangers of global warming — such as deadly heat waves, water shortages, crop failures and ecosystem collapse — grow immensely.

Meeting that goal means all countries must commit to cutting emissions faster and deeper than they already are doing. There is also an expectation that wealthy countries will significantly increase financial support to help the most vulnerable nations adapt to the impacts of warming and build economies that don't depend on fossil fuels.

Scientists have warned that global warming will keep getting worse until humanity reaches "net zero" emissions globally — that is, the point at which we are no longer pumping any additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

So in recent years a growing number of countries and businesses have been pledging to "go net zero" by various dates. But the concept can easily be abused.

It's one example of climate terminology that can be hard to decipher. We explained it and 12 others.

The first COP was held in Berlin in 1995, after a critical mass of nations ratified the climate convention. It was a milestone and set the stage for the Kyoto Protocol two years later, which required wealthy, industrialized nations to curb emissions.

That accord had its problems. Among them, the United States under former President George W. Bush rejected it, citing the fact that it did not require China, India and other major emerging economies to reduce their greenhouse gases.

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Credit... Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

In 2015, after more than two decades of disputes over which nations bear the most responsibility for tackling climate change, leaders of nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement. That deal was considered groundbreaking. For the first time, rich and poor countries agreed to act, albeit at different paces, to tackle climate change.

The United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement under former President Donald J. Trump but rejoined in February of this year. On Monday, in a smaller session with world leaders after his address to the full conference, Mr. Biden referred to Mr. Trump's action.

"I guess I shouldn't apologize, but I do apologize for the fact the United States, in the last administration, pulled out of the Paris Accords and put us sort of behind the eight ball," he said.

While leaders made big promises in Paris, countries have not done enough to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, which brings us to COP26 in Glasgow, where the pressure is on for leaders to be more ambitious.

For every fraction of a degree of warming, scientists say, the world will see more intense heat waves and drought, and more deadly floods and wildfires. Humans have already heated the planet by roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius, or 2 degrees Fahrenheit, since the 19th century.

Countries have less than 10 years to reduce emissions enough to keep the planet below 1.5 degrees of warming. So if leaders don't commit to bold steps now, when so much global attention is focused on Glasgow, many fear the world will barrel toward dangerous levels of warming.

President Biden has said that America will cut emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels in the next decade. As of now, though, few policies are in place to make that happen. The European Union also made new promises to cut their emissions roughly 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. But China, now the world's largest climate polluter, has not shifted its plan to peak emissions "before" 2030 — a target scientists say is not adequate to keep the planet on a 1.5 degree pathway.

Whether more countries come on board, and whether the United States can actually make good on its promise, will determine the trajectory of the planet.

The annual summit was delayed last year because of the pandemic. Despite calls from environmental organizations to delay again, organizers committed to holding this year's event in person. The British hosts offered to help any delegates who need a Covid-19 vaccination obtain one, but they are not mandating that attendees be vaccinated.

Anyone entering the main conference site, known as the Blue Zone, must self-administer a rapid Covid-19 test and show a negative result.

The science of climate change is complicated, and thinking about its consequences and how to fix the problem can be overwhelming. Explaining the factors in play to children can be especially difficult. To help start the conversation, The New York Times put together a climate change guide for children as part of this year's Earth Day package.

When Do the Colors Change in New York

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-cop26-climate-change-summit.html

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